According
to Encyclopedia Britannica :” Cold War, the open yet restricted rivalry
that developed after World War II between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies. The Cold War was waged on
political, economic, and propaganda fronts and had only limited recourse to
weapons.” Did the Cold War really end
with the dismantling of USSR and we entered a Post-Cold War era? Or we have
been experiencing different versions of Cold War till we reached the 2.0
version known as the New Cold War? Is the New Cold War shifting the balance of
power by creating new alliances? How are these alliances impacting our daily
lives?
Historians
define the Cold War as the era following World War II (1945-1989) (Mingest, Mckibben, Arreuin-Toft 46). During this 45-year period, the
power balance shifted from a unipolar system led by Western Europe to a bipolar
system led by the U.S. (Capitalism) and the Soviet Union (Communism). After
all, this outcome was expected. The two superpowers had divergent national
interests and ideology (Mingest, Mckibben, Arreuin-Toft
42).
Americans
were fighting in a foreign soil and expected a quick repatriation of soldiers
to go back to a certain life normality. On the other hand, soviets were at home
or what they may call sphere of influence (Mingest,
Mckibben, Arreuin-Toft 43). The soviets did not just occupy West Germany.
Yet, expanded their influence on the majority of Eastern Europe to protect
their western borders. In addition, the Soviets were able to test their first
atomic bomb in August 1949. This event led to a major shift in the American
future foreign affair policies toward URSS. Policies that continued till the Soviet
Union was dismantled in 1992. The United States opted for a containment
strategy to tackle USSR aggressive foreign policies (Mingest,
Mckibben, Arreuin-Toft 43).
During
the cold war, most nations were forced to pick a side per necessity for
financial and military support. The situation led to confrontations in Africa,
South America, and Asia. In my opinion, the most serious incident was the Cuban
missile crisis. However, the incident opened the door for direct talks between
the two superpowers. Both leaders, decided to follow their human instinct to dis-escalate
the situation instead on relying in Military leaders. Generals on both sides were
ready to lunch a World War III (Mingest, Mckibben, Arreuin-Toft 43). The
fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 followed by series of events ended the Cold War.
The
post-Cold War era was characterized by a return to a unipolar system. The
United States became the main actor in the international scene. The Soviet
Union was dismantled and faced huge economical and institutional struggle. I
believe the chute of Tito’s regime in Yugoslavia followed by Srebrenica
Massacre revived Europe’s old demons. Europe was undergoing new borders
reshuffling and the calls for a Unified Europe were of imminent relevance.
For
the United States, the post-Cold War era can be divided into two segments: The
War on terrorism and the War on drugs. While the War on Drugs may seem a priori
less relevant at world stage. The War on terrorism impacted every nation in the
world. All nations were forced to pick a side either with the U.S. or part of
the axe of evil as described by George W Bush in his (in) famous speech. (Onion,
Sullivan & Mullen, 2019).
I
do not believe we are headed towards a New Cold War because the stakes are too
high for the superpowers. The most dominant type of power in our actual era is
not military or political power. Yet, the economic power. The world economy is
interconnected. For instance, during 2009 economic crisis the chute of housing
market in Florida triggered series of events leading to a Mondial economic
depression. A clear example of the Butterfly Effect. The priority of actual
superpowers, such as U.S. and China are to maintain a growing economy not
sparking new wars. The old school thoughts of super military dominance are
revolved and most government in powerful nations are led by economist not politicians.
The end goal to military spending is to keep a leverage during negotiation not
to trigger military conflicts. (Myre, 2019).
In
my opinion, China learned from the Soviet Union mistakes. China shifted from a
strict communist system to a hybrid system of socialism and liberalism to benefit
of both worlds. For instance, China was clever investing in emerging markets
specially in the African Continent. Building
infrastructures and on-site factories to process much need it matière premiere.
China was not concerned by the political stability of volatile African regimes.
Chinese government mastered the art of making deals with dictatorships and
military governments. For the western world it may seem odd. Yet, China offered
a certain stability when it comes to foreign policy. After all, China does not
have a system of multiple political parties with divergent agendas. When you
are dealing with the Chinese government you know what to expect in the long
term (Marston, Sep 2019).
Considering
the aggressive economic approach of China not just in the African continent but
all over the world. The balance of power shifted toward making new alliances.
The need of new alliances was exacerbated by Trump’s Foreign policies imposing tariffs
or economic sanctions to many countries. Multiple alliances emerged or were revived:
Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN), Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) and Countries of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI). However, the only
exception to the rush towards alliances was the Brexit. I doubt the U.S. will be
able to balance the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. China will lead the
world economy within the next 20 years that is a fact (Westcott, Jan 2020). This
new shift of power will offer emergent nations an opportunity to choose what
best fit their interest.
As
a Moroccan citizen. I want my government to choose what investment works best
for the future of all Moroccans. The time of imposed directives from former
colonial powers has resumed. Today, nations do not need to limit their
partnership to one ally. Yet, form partnership in each sector (military,
economy, education…). We are in an open market where we can pick and choose.
For
instance, I am closely following news coming from Kenitra my hometown in
Morocco. The creation of a free trade zone for auto manufacturers attracted
investors from Japan, China, The U.S., Canada, and Europe. Each factory produces
parts for cars exported to Africa and Easter Europe.
It
is clear four years of Trump’s policies stressed the need for new alliances and
diminished U.S presence in the international scene. Yet, I am confident that
under Biden Administration. The U.S. will form a stronger alliance with Canada
and Mexico in North America. Strengthen presence in Asia by supporting (ASEAN)
and re-in force the relation with EU. I also hope that someone will send the
Biden Administration wakeup calls to emphasize the importance of emergent African
markets.
References
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Greg Myre, Are U.S. And China
Headed For A Cold War, npr : Morning Edition , Sep 9, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/09/747238523/are-the-u-s-and-china-headed-for-a-cold-war.
Accessed 23 Jan. 2021.
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Accessed 23 Jan. 2021.