to Encyclopedia Britannica:” In
2018 the United Nations recorded
6.7 million Syrian refugees, nearly 40 percent of Syria’s population that year.
Several human rights organizations have called the Syrian Civil War the worst
humanitarian crisis of the 21st century.” Is Turkey stabilizing the region by creating a
safe zone to relocate Syrian refugees? Is Turkish invasion of Syrian
territories justifiable? How the West looks at the Turkish military
intervention in Syria? What will be the impact of the Turkish blunt move on the
peace and population in the region?
Before
analyzing the reasons behind the Turkish military intervention in the Syrian
territories. We may need to explore the Syrian-Turkish relations post Syrian
civil war. Syria and Turkey not only share a large portion of their borders.
Yet, they share common culture, traditions and even language in some parts.
Both countries have strong leadership figures. Asaad and Erdogan had a great
cooperative relationship. Asaad is coming from a minority Shiites leading a
majority Sunnites. He was able to keep a tight grip in all minorities including
Kurds and Christians. Erdogan main priority was to keep Turkey safe from PKK militants using Syrian soil
as a base to lunch terrorist attacks against Turkey. The PKK or the Turkish Kurdistan
Workers Party, designated as terrorist group by Turkey (Gaouette,2020). Post Syrian civil war. The borders were
secured and Kurdish Syrian’s involvement in Turkey was limited.
Since the start of Syrian civil war. The
Kurdish People's Protection Units wing of the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (Gaouette,2020) has been
receiving military and tactical support from the US. Turkey could not tolerate
the creation of an autonomic Kurdish territory in Syria. The Turkish invasion
goal is to change the ethnic population between Syrian and Turkish borders and to
create a 3o km tampon zone for refugees ( Parvaneh, Ellis, El idrissi, 2019) .Pushing away Kurds and bringing a more
sympathetic Syrian Sunnite refugees will cut the supply chain between Kurds in
Syria and Turkey.
The role of the U.S is a bite ambiguous. The
U.S do not want to have a skin in the game. They are using Kurds as proxies to
fight ISIS. The U.S maintain a small military presence in Syria. Officially, about 500 U.S. troops (Kheel, 2020). An unsignificant number
comparing to Russian troops. It almost feels like the US is playing the role of
UN observer. The U.S main priority is to fight ISIS and irradicate the
possibility of creating an alleged Caliphate.
Officially,
Turkey is fighting Terrorism (Mingest, Mckibben, Arreuin-Toft 198) and protecting its borders, citizens, and
Syrian refugees against attacks from Syrian Democratic Forces. SDF operate in the area as US
allies and led by the Kurdish People's Protection Units
(YPG), which Turkey considers a terrorist organization (Gaouette,2020).
However, Unconventional warfare (Mingest, Mckibben,
Arreuin-Toft 196) seems
more adequate to define the warfare used by Turkey. The nationalism sentiment
within Turkish troops is high. A priori, they are defending mother land against
Kurdish militias and supporting the Syrian National Army, a Turkey-backed rebel
group (Gaouette,2020).
Their goal is freeing Syria from the oppressive regime of Bashar Al Asaad.
Realism may best explain Turkey’s theory of
international relations. As the military power of Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG)
increased. Turkey had to balance the power and limit YPG military abilities to
hold ground and fight back. Turkey is concerned with the military abilities of
Kurdish groups within its territory. On the other hand, the U.S is opting for a
liberal approach. The U.S prefers to arm Kurdish militants as well as cooperate
with Turkish Military to eradicate ISIS.
However, when it comes to resolving the Syrian
conflict. The U.S prefers to use international cooperation such as the U.N to
ratify sanction against the Syrian regime. The U.S strategy dealing with the
Syrian conflict may be qualified by historians in the future as the most
disastrous strategy in the U.S international relations after the Cold War.
While the U.S abandoned its Kurdish ally; Russia is backing Asaad’s regime. That
move by the U.S sent a strong message to the World: The U.S is not reliable
while Russia will fight with its allies till the end.
Besides, the economic sanctions imposed on
Bashar’s family and military leadership by the US Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019 (Al Shami, 2020). I do not see any response from the international community. The inability of Europe to come up with a clear
strategy to address the imminent danger faced with is troubling. Terrorist
attacks increased since the Syrian conflict started, and these attacks will
remain as a permanent treat. The E.U strategy was to pay Turkey Billions of
Dollars to keep Syrian refugees within Turkish borders. A card that Erdogan is
continually playing whenever an issue arises between Europe and Turkey. Erdogan
threatens to open the flood gate of refugees.
Contrary to most predictions. I do not see the
Turkish military intervention as a major event. Syrian territory is an area of 185,180 km² (John-Gadd,1999) while the Turkish incursion in Syrian
territories was no further than 3o km. While I do condemn Turkish invasion of
Syrian lands. I do find Western critics of the Turkish operation as hypocrite.
Europe do not want to receive Syrian refugees, cannot stand to Russia
controlling most Syrian territories, would not comment on Israeli raids on
Syrian territories and occupation of Golan Heights. However, when it comes to Turkey
pushing back Kurdish militants to resettle Syrian refugees. It became an
international outcry.
The peace in the region will not prevail till
we resolve the Syrian conflict in its totality. Russia is not leaving any time
sooner.
Russia invested heavily in Syria and
already started cashing back. In 2013, Syrian government signed a
contract with Russian firm to drill Latakia’s offshore for oil and gas. (Youssouffa,
Lequertier, Cohen, 2016). Turkish maneuver is a small move in a bigger geopolitical chess
game. At the end. The Syrian population are paying the bigger price.
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